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8 Dec 2023 | Commentary

Argentina: Jumping Into Unchartered Territory

On December 10, Argentina will inaugurate Javier Milei, a self-proclaimed ‘anarcho-capitalist’ libertarian and right-wing populist economist marking a significant departure from conventional Argentinian politics. Milei, an eccentric “outsider” transitioned from an anonymous citizen to a political force as a national deputy for Buenos Aires after gaining popularity by harshly criticizing the political status quo. His colorful attacks on traditional politicians, whom he calls the “political caste”, resonated with most Argentines, leading him to secure 56% of the vote on November 19 in contrast to the 44% won by current economy minister Sergio Massa.

Milei won in elections that were free, fair, and without any significant incidents. This electoral victory, perceived for some as a response to public dissatisfaction with the existing political system was influenced by the state of the economy, rampant corruption, the pandemic, and social media. Milei’s bombastic rhetoric is viewed as a breath of fresh air in a political system unable to fully meet the needs of all Argentines.

Economic Challenges

Argentina’s economic crises, rooted in structural, cyclical issues, and insurmountable endemic debt have persisted for decades, due to mismanaged tax and monetary policies that led to recessions, depressions, and high inflation. Efforts to correct inflation by refinancing debt and other measures resulted in shrinking the economy and increasing poverty. Many policies were an attempt to deal with pressures placed upon Argentina given its debt to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The current problem facing Argentines is that most people’s incomes cannot cover the basic cost of living (food, transportation, and services). Prices have gone up while salaries have not. In September 2023, during the presidential campaign season, inflation neared 140% causing a 12.7% increase in consumer prices. According to Argentina’s National Institute for Statistics and Census (INDEC) in the first semester of 2023, the percentage of households under the poverty line rose by 29.1% affecting 40.1% of the population. 

During the Mauricio Macri administration informality in the labor sector grew with many Argentines living off “popular economies” or jobs without formal salaries, benefits, and stability. As was the case globally, the pandemic exacerbated existing inequalities and hit Argentina hard. The restrictions imposed by the Alberto Fernandez government to contain the COVID-19 virus dealt a significant blow to those dependent upon the popular economy. Unfortunately, the governmental relief packages meant to substitute these losses did not adequately address the economic fallout, affecting various sectors such as small businesses, food delivery, domestic workers, car app drivers, and youth employed in precarious or temporary jobs.

On December 6, 2022, a federal court found Vice President and former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (2007-2015) guilty of corruption involving approximately $1 billion from fake contracts and bogus construction of 51 public works projects during her presidency. President Macri from the Let’s Change Coalition which was neither Peronist nor Radical, was elected on an anti-corruption platform. He too faced corruption scandals. While the Kirchners describe the cases against them as political persecution, the multiple corruption cases linked to the government have diminished the credibility of Peronism. Overall, Argentines find themselves entangled in a web of corruption allegations, complicating economic recovery. Presenting the economy minister, Sergio Massa, as the government’s presidential candidate failed to convince the population that their lives would improve. Supporters of Javier Milei acknowledge his incendiary rhetoric but appreciate his perceived lack of corruption, representing an alternative for those deciding between the lesser of two evils.  

Appeal to Discontent

Milei strategically capitalized on economic desperation, rage, and a widespread desire for change among many Argentines. Young men in particular feel a lack of opportunities to improve their economic situations. Another segment of the population feels that the progressive governments’ rhetoric failed to materialize into concrete results and that their criticisms were minimized. Consequently, Milei’s proposals to overhaul the system, including abolishing the Central Bank of Argentina, dollarizing the economy, promoting rampant privatization, and drastically cutting the government, resonate with this demographic.  His symbolic gestures, such as wielding a chainsaw in the air and creating dramatic TikTok videos, have become emblematic of his commitment to radical change.

Social media played a pivotal role in getting Milei elected. Professors Yamila Campo and Mariano Juarez from the Department of Social Sciences at Buenos Aires University, highlight the significance of TikTok, as the most downloaded application in Argentina in 2022. A considerable 53.4% of the population aged 18 and older have TikTok on their cell phones. Additionally, 49% of them are active on Twitter, while a substantial 93.1% use WhatsApp and 86% use Instagram.

His digital campaign, led by strategists including Fernando Cerimedo, employed tactics similar to those used by Trump and Bolsonaro, using platforms like TikTok to simplify complex issues and present quick solutions.

Controversial Stances

Despite his widespread appeal, Milei’s positions on social issues raise significant concerns. Much like Bolsonaro, Milei denies the existence of climate change, expresses skepticism about COVID-19 vaccines, and holds anti-abortion views. He aligns with the global backlash against feminism, employing reactionary rhetoric perceived as rebellious by those who resent progressive gender policies. Notably, on femicides, he advocates for eliminating the gender question in the penal code.

Inconsistencies emerge on other matters. Initially advocating for the liberalization of firearms on his campaign platform, Milei later reversed his stance. Other outlandish statements include asserting individuals should be free to sell their organs and positing the existence of a cultural Marxism or socialism that purportedly seeks to harm Argentina. This rhetoric is well received by some Argentines who find social movements’ efforts to promote inclusivity in language imposing and condescending. 

On foreign relations, Milei has announced that he would freeze relations with China and withdraw Argentina from Mercosur. He has made disparaging remarks about Pope Francis calling him a communist and using other derogatory language. However, since becoming President-elect his stance toward Brazil, China, and the Pope has undergone a noticeable softening.  This shift introduces an element of uncertainty regarding Milei’s future actions once he assumes the presidency. 

Campaign Strategies and Global Trends

In many ways, Milei’s campaign strategies closely mirror those employed by Trump and Bolsonaro. In the final days of the elections, his party alleged fraud in the first round, although when asked to present evidence none was presented. Despite this, the impression of wrongdoing and efforts to undermine his candidacy remained. This pattern echoes instances in the U.S. and Brazil, where similar tactics led to alarming events such as the attack on the U.S. Capitol and assaults on Brazil’s federal buildings. 

All three figures have presented themselves as anti-establishment outsiders poised to bring about transformative change. For Trump, this was “draining the swamp”, while Milei emphasizes cutting governmental institutions and spending with a chainsaw. 

Their campaigns were characterized by incendiary, politically incorrect statements, insults directed at key figures, and a boastful arrogance that conveyed the image of a strongman leader.  All three advance a right-wing populist agenda that resonates with many disgruntled workers globally by placing the blame on corrupt political elites. This is mixed with authoritarian tendencies that include scapegoating women and ethnic and sexual minorities. The basic rules of respect towards opponents and civility are disregarded, while the rhetoric used is degrading and insulting, causing division and polarization.  As we see the limits of liberal democracies and the globalized economy to meet the needs of all citizens, political forces that capture despair to gain power are spreading.

An Uncertain Future

As Argentina approaches Milei’s inauguration on December 10, uncertainties loom regarding his policy decisions:

  1. Will Milei cut commercial ties with Brazil and China and only prioritize the U.S. and Israel?
  2. Is his dollarization plan feasible?
  3. How will he respond when mass protests ensue when ministries are cut and services privatized? Will it be repressive? Will he treat his adversaries and persons with dissenting views with respect or violate their human rights?
  4. What role will Argentina’s judicial system play in handling disputes over the changes Milei wishes to pass that others will challenge legally?
  5. Will feminists, LGBTQ collectives, afro descendants, indigenous, and migrants become targets, and will Milei’s rhetoric fuel violence and harassment?

As Argentina stands on the threshold of Milei’s presidency, more questions than answers persist. The implications of his policies and the societal shifts he represents remain the subject of intense speculation and concern.