Even in death, Chavez shadows Venezuela's vote

• Ch%E1vez aide Nicolas Maduro was tapped as successor
• Maduro faces Henrique Capriles Radonski in Sunday%27s vote
• Winner will be faced with halting Venezuela%27s economic slide

CARACAS, Venezuela — The late Hugo Chávez bequeathed his title of president to his loyal aide Nicolas Maduro before he succumbed to cancer, and the anointment has been the focus of Maduro's pitch to voters in Sunday's presidential election.

But should Maduro win, he will have to grapple with another gift from Chávez: a country sliding into economic chaos that the bombastic socialist leader largely escaped the blame for prior to his death March 5. Maduro is not likely to be so fortunate, say political analysts here.

"Whatever happens on Sunday one thing is certain: There is going to be a new chapter in Venezuelan politics,'' says Oscar Schemel, who runs the country's Hinterlaces polling agency.

Maduro's campaign against challenger and Miranda state Gov. Henrique Capriles Radonski has been to remind Venezuelans daily that Chávez wanted his vice president to succeed him. A former bus driver and union agitator who was an early supporter of the socialist movement "Chávismo," Maduro has adopted the mannerisms, dress and speaking style of his late boss while using government money and media to execute his campaign.

Schemel gives Maduro up to a 16-percentage-point lead over Capriles, who lost to Chávez 55%-44% in last October's presidential vote. The winner Sunday will likely be under tremendous pressure to fix Venezuela's economy that is ailing despite having the world's largest oil reserves.

Consumer prices have risen sharply due in large part to the country's low production of food and other basic products, which have to be imported at high expense because the Venezuelan bolivar currency has dropped in value amid economic mismanagement. The country's strict exchange controls have also led to soaring shortages of food products, spare parts and medicines because importers are not allowed to receive U.S. dollars from the government.

State control over the oil industry has led to a stagnation of production and a drop in Venezuela's international currency reserves. Crime such as murder has risen at a frightening pace; Caracas is now ranked as the world's most dangerous capital city.

"We see Maduro winning the election, but then that's when things will start getting interesting,'' says Risa Grais-Targow, an analyst with the Eurasia Group. ''He will have to start addressing some of the country's issues, especially the economic ones.''

But given Maduro's total embrace of Chávez's policies, any deviation could leave him open to attack and criticism from other leaders in Chavismo, including the powerful head of the country's National Assembly, Diosdado Cabello.

"Maduro may have to choose between easing some of the country´s economic policies – for example, trying to accommodate private businessmen and investors – or political repression,'' says Grais-Targow. "We think that he could move toward the latter.''

Campaign rhetoric has been peppered by insults that have even surprised Venezuelans.

Maduro has accused his rival and members of the opposition of being the ''heirs of Hitler,'' even through Capriles' maternal grandfather was a Polish Jew who arrived in Venezuela after World War II. Maduro says that Capriles is a pawn of the U.S. and imperialist interests, and would end many of Chávez's social programs for the poor.

Capriles, who was often criticized for not defending himself from a barrage of insults from Chávez last year, has labeled Maduro an ''oaf'' whose stewardship of the country before and after Chávez's death has been a disaster, especially with regard to the economy and crime. He has said little about how he would do things differently.

''I am a little surprised that Capriles hasn't come out with a more concrete campaign message,'' said David Smilde, a senior fellow at the Washington Office on Latin America. ''Perhaps he hasn't because the campaign time is so short. Instead, he has concentrated on breaking the link between Chávez and Maduro.''

Both candidates have attracted large crowds, barnstorming the country and often making two to three appearances a day.

Maduro's rallies often kicked off with the late president singing the national anthem, or a video in which Chávez asked Venezuelans to vote for Maduro. Calling himself a son of Chávez, he often breaks into song as Chávez did and also like Chávez did has repeatedly accused his detractors of trying to assassinate him.

''I am confident that the people will vote for Maduro because we are a family, which has lost their father. He (Chávez) left me in front of a revolution," Maduro said during a campaign stop in Barinas.

Maduro has offered solutions to some of the country's ills. Venezuela, a country of about 30 million, had more than 20,000 murders in 2012. The United States, with 315 million people, had about 12,000 murders. Maduro announced plans to fight crime by going to the slums of major cities to talk to criminals to persuade them to lay down their arms. He also plans to invest billions in the country's crumbling electricity grid, he says.

For the most part, Maduro has tried to stoke the link between Chávez and the country's poor, who make up more than half of the electorate and received sporadic welfare benefits under Chávez.

''Maduro's tone and his insults are intended to rally his supporters, to strengthen that emotional bond that many feel with Chávez,'' said Tarek Yorde, a Caracas-based political analyst.

Some of his efforts have backfired.

Maduro was the butt of jokes after he said Chávez appeared to him as a bird to give him encouragement about the campaign.

''I am a 'Chávista,' but does he think we're all ignoramuses?'' said Ricardo Lopez, a 32-year-old employee at a state ministry in Caracas. "He needs to treat us with more respect."

If Capriles has any chance of pulling off an upset, it will have to come down to the turnout, said analysts. About 20% of eligible voters did not take part in the October election.

''People could be surprised,'' said Ray Walser, a senior policy analyst with the Washington-based Heritage Foundation. ''A lot of the people in the opposition who were optimistic about winning in October are now skeptical. Could there be a surprise?''