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Political Risk Outlook: Is The Security Crisis In El Salvador Getting Worse?

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El Salvador is one of Latin America's most complicated and problematic economies. A geographically tiny country that is smaller than the U.S. state of Vermont, El Salvador is home to more than six million people, more than ten times Vermont's population. El Salvador's economy is dollarized, a fact that should make it easier to do business with U.S. companies but the current left-of-centre government of Salvador Sánchez Ceren hasn't been able to encourage enough investment to spur much economic growth. El Salvador's economy continues to be squeezed by a sizable trade imbalance and a relatively high ratio of debt to GDP. In November, the credit rating agency Moody's downgraded its outlook for El Salvador due to concerns about large fiscal deficits and increasing public debt. At the same time, an ongoing crisis of gang violence has turned El Salvador into the most violent country in Latin America and is pushing many residents to flee north to Mexico and the U.S. To get a sense of the current dynamic in El Salvador and ask what trends are likely to unfold this year, I reached out to Adriana Beltran, a security expert from the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA).

Nathaniel Parish Flannery: What's your view of the security dynamic in El Salvador?

Adriana Beltran: Violence in El Salvador is rampant. In 2015, El Salvador ended the year with 6,650 homicides in a population of 6.4 million, surpassing Honduras as the world’s most violent country not at war.

Youth from marginalized communities are disproportionally affected by violence. A 2014 UNICEF report revealed that El Salvador has the world’s highest child and adolescent murder rate at about 27 murders per 100,000. Although the overwhelming majority of victims are male, women and girls are increasingly victims of violence. According to the 2011 Global Burden of Armed Violence report, El Salvador has the highest rate of gender-motivated killing of women in the world, with a rate of 12 homicides per 100,000.

Homicide statistics are just one measure of the pervasive violence faced by many Salvadorans every day. Domestic violence, child abuse, and extortion are also commonplace. In data compiled by the Salvadoran Institute for Women’s Development [IDESMU], 56% of all reports of violence against women were cases of domestic abuse. Data compiled by the Honduran daily La Prensa showed that Salvadorans pay an estimated $400 million a year in extortion fees. In the case of the public transport sector alone, the president of Public Passenger Transportation Association [Asociación de Transportistas de Pasajeros] noted that in 2015 transportation workers were forced to pay $37 million in extortion fees.

A significant proportion of the violence can be attributed to the “maras” or street gangs, mainly the Mara Salvatrucha [MS-13] and its rival the Barrio 18 [18th Street gang]. These gangs emerged in the 1990s in marginal communities with few opportunities for young people. They were fueled in their early years by deportations from the United States and the adoption of U.S.–style gang customs. Gangs impact every aspect of life in the neighborhoods and communities they control, engaging in violent turf battles, kidnapping, human trafficking, small-scale drug dealing, and extortion of local businesses, bus drivers, and residents. Failure to pay often results in harassment or violence. Gangs sometimes employ “join or die” recruitment practices, forcing children and youth to drop out of school or relocate. In 2014, the Vice Minister of Education estimated that at least 200 schools were under gang control.

While street gangs are an often-cited source of crime, drug trafficking and local organized criminal groups also contribute to insecurity. In recent years, El Salvador has become a growing transit hub and storage point for illicit drugs due to stepped-up enforcement efforts in Colombia and Mexico. Local smuggling groups are largely responsible for the rampant levels of corruption and erosion of the justice and security systems.

El Salvador’s violence and insecurity are in many ways a consequence of weak institutions, widespread impunity, and rampant corruption. Victims of violence often find no protection from authorities, and crimes often remain unpunished. The country’s justice and law enforcement institutions are weak, ineffective, and often complicit in illicit activity. According a 2014 study carried out by the University Public Opinion Research Institute [IUDOP], less than five percent of the criminal complaints filed at the Attorney General’s Office end with a conviction or an acquittal.

Parish Flannery: Is the situation improving or getting worse?

Beltran: As I said earlier El Salvador has become the deadliest country in the world outside a war zone. The security situation has deteriorated dramatically, with the homicide rate reaching levels not seen since the end of the country’s civil war. According to police statistics, El Salvador’s 2015 national murder rate reached approximately 103 homicides per 100,000 people, a 70% increase over 2014. According to a 2015 survey conducted by the IUDOP 67.5% of respondents believe that the overall conditions in the country have worsened over the past year, and 24.5% reported being a victim of a crime, the highest percentage reported by the organization since 2000.

The breakdown of a truce between rival gangs is one reason for this dramatic increase. In March 2012, a truce was negotiated between the MS-13 and the 18th Street gangs, with behind the scenes support from the government of President Mauricio Funes. Homicide rates quickly dropped from around 14 murders a day to about five. Despite the dramatic reduction in violence, the truce lacked support and a sense of legitimacy within Salvadoran society. Many questioned the lack of transparency about the process and the agreements that led to the truce. Analysts, though welcoming the drop in violence, questioned whether the terms of the truce had allowed the gangs to consolidate their territorial control, and expressed concern that the reduction in murders was also the product of under-the-table agreements with transnational organized criminal groups. Although the truce focused on ending gang-related homicides, it did not require gangs to halt many other criminal activities, including extortion. By 2014, the truce began to unravel and homicides started to steadily increase.

The government of FMLN president Salvador Sánchez Ceren, who assumed office in June 2014, has not been able to bring crime and violence under control. While it has pursued a national dialogue on responses to crime and violence, its hardline police enforcement operations have worsened the situation. In early 2015, Ceren rejected any negotiations with gangs and launched an aggressive crackdown, returning gang leaders to the Zacatecoluca maximum security prison and carrying out large-scale sweeps to arrest gang members. Violent conflicts between police and gang members, and in-fighting between gangs have driven homicide levels to an all time high.

Though the hardline approach is politically popular, there are growing concerns about police and security force involvement in extrajudicial killings and human rights abuses. Recent findings by the Ombudsman for the Defense of Human Rights [PDDH] revealed that between June 2014 and May 2015, 92% of all reported human rights violations were linked to the national police, army, or other state institutions. The crackdown has also overshadowed the government’s ambitious $2.1 billion five year citizen security plan, El Salvador Seguro [Secure El Salvador], which prioritizes prevention, rehabilitation, and education and training programs for the country’s most violent municipalities, as well as strengthening the rule of law.

Parish Flannery: What's the root of the problem?

Beltran: Violence and insecurity in El Salvador is caused by a number of factors, including weak institutions, corruption, poverty, inequality, and lack of opportunity for youth. However, the country’s administrations have shown little capacity to develop thoughtful, comprehensive approaches to address the endemic levels of violence. Rather than strengthening prevention programs and improving the intelligence and investigative capacities of the police, there has been a tendency to fall back on the popular but ineffective “mano dura” or hardline policing strategies, and on deploying the military to patrol the streets. These iron-fist policies have resulted in increased levels of violence and reports of human rights abuses.

In addition, the country faces serious problems of corruption. Organized criminal groups have corrupted and infiltrated the police, the Public Prosecutor’s Office, the justice sector, and other public institutions.

The police have made sporadic efforts to go after criminal groups with links to the state and to politicians, but those efforts have been frustrated by the lack of commitment of the attorney general. Attorneys general in El Salvador have traditionally shown little interest in pursuing politically sensitive cases, and have often lacked the independence and technical capacity to do so. In January 2015, following a long process of political negotiations, a new attorney general was elected—a career prosecutor who, if committed to doing so, could play an important role in advancing much needed institutional reforms and increasing the capacity of the Public Prosecutor’s Office to address corruption and impunity within state institutions.

The country’s sluggish economy and low tax burden also exacerbate the situation. Growth has tended to hover around two percent for years, yet sectors of the business community and the political right have long been reluctant to endorse much needed budgetary reforms and effective tax increases. The economy’s poor performance and small public sector have hindered the state’s ability to support ambitious social programs and generate jobs and opportunities. According to data compiled by the Inter-American Development Bank, 141,000 Salvadoran youth between ages 15 and 24—nearly one-third of that age group—are neither employed nor in school. Often, there are few other options available than to join a street gang or to migrate.

In 2014, the Millennium Challenge Corporation signed a $277 million compact with the government of El Salvador for job training, regulatory reform, and other measures aimed at increasing economic growth. Last year, the government obtained $100 million in loans and passed a new five percent telecommunications tax intended to finance its ambitious citizen security plan. These funds, along with the recently approved aid package to support the new U.S. Strategy for Engagement in Central America, could have an important impact on addressing the pervasive violence and insecurity in El Salvador, if invested wisely.

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