Photo by Marcelo Perez del Carpio/Getty Images
Photo by Marcelo Perez del Carpio/Getty Images
As Venezuela gears up for presidential elections on July 28, the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA) invited two experts to discuss the electoral conditions that may define the outcome. Eugenio Martínez, director of Votoscopio, and Griselda Colina, director general of the Global Observatory on Communication and Democracy (Observatorio Global de Comunicación y Democracia) shared timely insights and concerns about the election process in Venezuela.
Although the government and the opposition Unitary Platform had signed the Barbados Agreement on Electoral Conditions in October of last year, this election is not taking place under free and fair conditions. Venezuela’s authoritarian government has banned candidates and imposed restrictions that raise serious concerns about the fairness of the electoral process. Nonetheless, the opposition and civil society remain committed to mobilizing in hopes of ushering in a democratic transition.
Here are the main takeaways from our conversation:
As Eugenio Martínez explained, the transparency of the electoral process rests on three pillars: the work of the poll watchers, international and national observers, and members of each “table” or voting station.
Traditionally, national observers have played an important role since they have the capacity to deploy a larger mission throughout the territory, and have expert knowledge of the electoral procedure and dynamics at the local level. For this electoral process, the Observatorio Venezolano Electoral (OEV) was not accredited by the National Electoral Council to participate as an observer. The Red de Observación Electoral Asamblea de Educación (ROAE) received credentials to access voting sites. Some 600 credentials—fewer than what ROAE had requested—were finally delivered last week. There are other three groups that have received credentials and Griselda Colina explained that there is little information about their trajectory as observers: Centro de Estudios Superiores, Proyecto Social, Asociación Venezolana de Juristas.
Without formal accreditation but rather in their role as civil society, a coalition of civil society organizations named Red Electoral Ciudadana will carry out independent activities of contextual observation with a human rights perspective. Other organizations will be monitoring restrictions and human rights violations.
The access of international observation has likewise been limited, with the UN Panel of Electoral Experts and the Carter Center among the only technical observers that received invitations. The Maduro government revoked its invitation to the European Union Electoral Observation Mission this May, citing sanctions applied by its member states. On Monday, Minister of Defense Vladimir Padrino welcomed observers from the Carter Center in Caracas.
As Venezuela approaches elections, new missions have been announced from Colombia and Brazil. “More than observation missions, it’s political accompaniment,” according to Martínez. They could contribute to the oversight of the transparency of the process, but they are not technical missions. The only two technical international observation missions are the Carter Center and the UN Panel of Electoral Experts.
As Eugenio Martínez noted, “The [automated voting] system has been audited, the system will function… The problem lies in the environment surrounding the voting process.” Meaning, the electronic voting system is secure, but there are other irregularities that undermine the transparency of the process and that could become more acute on the day of the elections. For example, coercion of voters in places controlled by the government, extending the hours in which the polling stations are open, limiting the access of poll watchers and observers, among others.
Poll watchers (testigos) are also crucial to avoid irregularities and to guarantee the scrutiny of the process. They are representatives of the presidential candidates that are present at each voting center, as a guarantee of the transparency of the process. The CNE changed the rules of the game to require that poll watchers be voters at the center in which they perform their role as witnesses of the process, something unprecedented. Despite this new limitation, the opposition was able to request accreditation of at least one poll watcher from the opposition in 98 percent of the 30,026 polling stations nationwide. However, up until the moment of this interview, the CNE had not granted them credentials to be able to conduct their work. The expectation is that those credentials will be issued throughout this week.
The international community’s role in backing Venezuelans’ desire for a competitive election will be very relevant, both during and after the election. President of Brazil Luis Inácio Lula da Silva has been among the most vocal actors in recent days, going as far as dispatching one of his top foreign policy advisors to Venezuela ahead of the vote. Similarly, Iniciativa Democrática de España y las Américas (IDEA) headed by Mexico’s Vicente Fox and other conservative political veterans have announced their wish to attend the election, but it is not clear whether they will be granted access to the country.
The international community’s reaction to the election results, be it favorable to Maduro or to the opposition, will help color successive negotiations. Should the Maduro government recognize its defeat, negotiations will need to establish conditions for a transfer of power by January 2025. If the Maduro government claims victory despite evidence of irregularities or otherwise disregards the results, international actors are likely to issue a resounding condemnation of the election.
According to our invited experts, regardless of the official results, the election will likely trigger a complex negotiation process. Eugenio Martínez suggests that Venezuela might face a scenario in which the results are not published immediately on the night of July 28. With institutions under the control of the ruling party until the start of the next presidential term in January 2025, the country’s governability remains uncertain.
Colina offered another possible panorama in which the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) might accept defeat in the face of a landslide opposition victory. In this scenario, party machinery would turn to preserving its political viability at local and state levels ahead of the upcoming 2025 regional and parliamentary elections. This strategy would depend on party officials’ cost-benefit calculations regarding their long-term political survival.
Venezuelans’ commitment to the right to vote and have autonomy over their destiny calls for international support in the defense of their political rights. Subsequent negotiations, either mediated by Norway or other actors, should aim to re-institutionalize the country, restore the rule of law, and ensure respect for human rights.
For more information don’t miss our video playlist featuring the latest updates on the Venezuelan elections by our Director for Venezuela, Laura Dib.
