Mario Tama/Getty Images
Mario Tama/Getty Images
On Sunday, Venezuelans will go to the polls in an election that has awoken a tantalizing possibility: could a democratic transition be on the horizon in Venezuela?
To better understand the potential outcomes in the hours, days, and weeks following the vote, the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA) sat down with two experts: Héctor G. Briceño, a visiting researcher at the University of Rostock (Germany), and Tamara Taraciuk Broner, director of the Peter D. Bell Rule of Law Program at the Inter-American Dialogue.
Voter turnout will be pivotal in determining the election’s outcome, with the electorate taking center stage as protagonist. According to Héctor Briceño, “In the measure that we surpass that threshold of participation, which is a little more than 55 percent [of the Electoral Registry], the positive scenarios tend to be those with the highest probability, those of a victory of the democratic forces.” He adds that if turnout falls below this threshold, “the scenarios become much more complex, they could even lead to an eventual victory for the government itself.”
The post-election period will be critical, with complex political scenarios unfolding. Briceño notes, “The post-electoral moment continues to be the moment of politics par excellence.” A key variable is the voter gap among the two main candidates, as “The larger the gap, the more unquestionable the results would be and would allow democratic factors to have a much broader negotiating capacity.” Tamara Taraciuk adds, “July 28 is going to be a day that translates into a political moment that will be very relevant, regardless of what happens with the results.” There is a door open for a conversation between the opposition and the government, but Taraciuk warned that these are two very unequal parties and that the government will likely seek ways to hold on to power.
WOLA raised questions about the complexity of balancing human rights standards with political demands during a potential transition. Taraciuk explains, “In Venezuela, two major types of crimes have been committed in recent years, one has to do with serious human rights violations and the other, with corruption, drug trafficking, and money laundering.” She adds, “There are certain people at the highest levels who are implicated in the most serious crimes who will always have to face the threat of criminal prosecution under international law.”
In the case of the highest ranking officials responsible for crimes against humanity, there is a clear limit in international law that would not allow them to benefit from amnesties or pardons. Taraciuck argues that in the cases of corruption and other crimes not related to gross human rights violations, there are legal pathways to offer incentives. This approach can help these individuals see a political future in a new government and deter them from further repressing the Venezuelan people.
The armed forces are key actors in this electoral context and in a potential transition. Briceño states, “There is clearly an institutional capital within the armed forces to basically support or fulfill their institutional role established in the Constitution,” considering that the lower ranks of the military have also experienced the impact of the complex humanitarian emergency firsthand.
Regarding the international community, Taraciuk notes the importance of distinguishing between the different roles that Latin American countries and the U.S. could play. For the U.S., Venezuela is a priority insofar as it impacts their interests. More specifically, migration is a concern, as an increase in Venezuelan migrants could occur if there is no transition of government. Despite facing a triad of crises—mass migration, a humanitarian emergency, and human rights violations—, the international community has not prioritized Venezuela in its agenda. Taraciuk highlights that, “with the elections, Venezuela is back on the radar of international media and the international community… I think that’s an opportunity.”
Both the U.S. and Venezuela have recently acknowledged publicly that there have been conversations in Qatar, something that had been kept confidential in the past. Although this raises questions about where does the formal negotiation process with Norway’s mediation stand, the fact that channels are open is a good sign. Nonetheless, Taraciuk stresses that the elections are merely the first step, and it is yet to be seen how these channels will be used after July 28.
Both experts stress that, despite the many obstacles and unfair conditions under which these elections are taking place, there are opportunities for change in Venezuela. In any case, the election will be just the beginning of a long and complex process. The local and legislative elections scheduled for 2025 also offer an opportunity for the democratization of the country.
To follow expert analysis on the 2024 elections in Venezuela, don’t miss our video playlist featuring our Director for Venezuela, Laura Dib.
