Q&A: A Year in Review for Guatemala’s President Bernardo Arévalo

Ana María Méndez Dardón, Director for Central America

Ana María Méndez Dardón

Ana María Méndez Dardón, Director for Central America

Ana María Méndez Dardón

Director for Central America

Ana María Méndez Dardón is the Director for Central America at the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA). At WOLA,...

As President Bernardo Arévalo enters his second year in office, Guatemala faces a challenging political landscape. His first year was marked by a mix of hope and frustration, with his administration attempting to push for change while contending with political opposition, institutional obstacles, and limited resources. While some strides have been made in areas like social justice and addressing corruption, expectations have often clashed with the realities of governance. In this Q&A, we take a closer look at the key issues and challenges facing Arévalo’s presidency as he navigates a complex web of political, economic, and judicial hurdles. Central America Program Director Ana María Méndez Dardón answers five key questions about Arévalo’s first year in office and her analysis on bilateral relations between the U.S. and Guatemala as Trump prepares to take office as president of the United States. 

What is the public perception of Arévalo after his first year in office? 

So first, I think Bernardo Arévalo’s strong showing in the first round of the elections, which enabled him to secure victory in the second round held in August 2023, was totally unexpected, particularly by Guatemala’s traditional elites and illicit networks. And that’s why these groups used the judicial system, particularly the Attorney General’s Office, to try to block Arévalo from being sworn in last January. However, citizens, particularly indigenous groups, were protesting in support of democracy, which I think was the key factor that allowed him to take office on January 14, 2024. 

In September 2024, Arévalo ranked the fourth most popular president in Latin America with an approval rating of 54 percent, since then some media outlets reported that his popularity has dropped – he’s not as popular and I think that people are frustrated. Many of them are disappointed, particularly some members of civil society organizations, as well as journalists, and this is because they were expecting more of a bold style of leadership. 

For example, Arévalo didn’t use his authority to remove the highly controversial Attorney General Consuelo Porras. So people, I think, got very rapidly disappointed because they said he needed to dismiss her, which they think should have been the first thing he did when he took office in January last year. His decision was due to a specific law, Ley Orgánica del Ministerio Público that blocked him and a mandatory legal opinion made by the Constitutional Court which stated that while the constitution allows him to make such a decision, there is a law that requires due process for the removal of the attorney general. In light of this, Arevalo believed it was important to respect the rule of law and democratic norms.

Another reason is that people were expecting a more populist narrative, particularly on security and corruption, which is very popular in the region right now. President Bukele of El Salvador, for example, is very popular in Guatemala too. What we’re seeing is that people are willing to have a lead with authoritarian tendencies when it comes to security. This has become something that some citizens are expecting, which is just not how Arévalo operates.

What challenges has Arévalo faced in terms of governance? How has the weakness of Guatemala’s judicial system, including the appointment of magistrates and the power of Attorney General Consuelo Porras, hindered President Arévalo’s reform agenda?

One of the biggest issues that Guatemala and even Bernardo Arévalo are facing is the lack of judicial independence both in the Attorney General’s office and the high courts.

Currently, there are nine open investigations against Bernardo Arévalo which are led by the Attorney General’s Office under Maria Conseulo Porras, who has been sanctioned by the U.S.,  the European Union and 42 countries in total for significant corruption and undermining democracy and the rule of law. 

When the previous President, Alejandro Giammettei, was in office, he appointed Consuelo Porras as Attorney General following a highly irregular selection process. Since then, she has basically dismantled the institution in many different ways. On the one hand, she has promoted persecution and criminalization against dissident voices, including those of journalists, human rights defenders, and independent justice officials that had a key role in prosecuting corruption and human rights abuses. On the other hand, a recent report made by civil society in Guatemala  demonstrates her lack of efficiency in prosecuting organized crime, drug trafficking, human trafficking, and other crimes. So basically, the Attorney General’s office has not only become a tool of repression, but it also blocks access to justice for Guatemalan citizens for, let’s say, common crimes, like extortion.

Last year, Congress elected new magistrates for the Constitutional Court and the Supreme Court. There was a lot of international attention towards it; Arévalo requested to the OAS (Organization of American States)  an observation mission to observe the process and one was deployed. IIllicit networks, however, were embedded in the process and influenced the decision. Civil society flagged irregularities in the process, but they were dismissed. With this global attention, Arévalo demonstrated openness for international scrutiny but unfortunately, Congress elected candidates that have been criticized for a lack of qualifications and bias that compromises the independence of the judiciary.  

In terms of the Congress, Arévalo’s party Semilla is also in the minority (23 out of 160 seats). They have tried to pass a progressive agenda on justice and human rights and approved a Competition Law to strengthen transparency and equity on markets in Guatemala to benefit consumers and producers. But other proposed laws  were blocked, such as one that would allow Arevalo to remove Porras. In order to pass anything, Semillas members have had to negotiate it with several political parties, which they have done. Unfortunately, this is something that has been criticized by civil society, specifically that some members of the Semilla party in Congress have aligned with the traditional political parties in Guatemala, which are, as we all know, known to be corrupt.

The final challenge has been the turnover rate in Arévalo’s cabinet. There are a lot of ministers that have resigned and there has been a lot of back and forth,  particularly with the communication minister. So there is what I would say is a weakness in his cabinet and the people that are advising him.

How has his administration sought to balance the demands of the private sector and social movements, particularly with regards to indigenous rights and land access?

The private sector in Guatemala has had enormous power over the most important political matters in the country. Their support for Bernardo Arévalo’s agenda on economic growth, good governance, anti-corruption, etc. is essential. Arévalo, however, has challenged their decision-making influence as seen by several measures he has enacted like the recent increase in the minimum wage by 10% for agricultural and non-agricultural activities and by 6% for the export and maquila sectors. 

Right now, the private sector is displeased about this and several other measures. For instance, in early February last year, Arévalo signed an agreement with Guatemala’s Indigenous groups, which was, in my opinion, historical and an important step. The agreement establishes a state of the art policy that addresses the lack of access to land and creates a space for permanent communication, but traditional elites in the private sector are not happy about that.

Unfortunately, some members of the private sector and the big business association known for its Spanish acronym, CACIF, have blocked structural change in different moments of Guatemalan history. For example, they did it in 1996 when the peace accords were signed and in 2015 after mass demonstrations against corruption that resulted in the resignation of former president Otto Perez Molina. Under the current context of lack of judicial independence, they have failed to express concerns over the Attorney General. 

Now Arévalo finds himself in the middle, trying to address all these issues like social injustice but also trying to balance the demands of the private sector without confronting them. Navigating between these two forces is very complicated in a country like Guatemala.

What has Arévalo done to address citizen security and violence in Guatemala? Has he had any success? 

Arévalo’s national agenda on security has a good approach, it is comprehensive and centers human rights, democracy, and promotes citizen security. The Minister of Interior has highlighted that the homicide rate decreased 3.9 percent in 2024 and they implemented a task force to address extortion. Other measures in the plan, however, will need to be carried out over the long-term. Moreover, some measures will be difficult to implement given the complexity of Guatemala’s security situation, as well as the country’s long history where its security forces not only have failed to protect citizens, they have been  a direct threat. 

So trying to overcome this reality of the military is complex. One thing that personally surprised me is that Bernardo Arévalo announced that the police were going to have joint efforts with the military to address insecurity. He announced that the military would be involved in citizen security measures, which is, in my opinion, a mistake because of the long history of violations that the military committed during the armed conflict in Guatemala. 

At the community level in rural areas, however, Guatemala has been a good example on how to counter violence because of Indigenous groups that implement their own systems to address insecurity. I think Arévalo would be more successful if he considered their security models, but overall his plan is very comprehensive and even touches on environmental security, which is something unique.

How has the bilateral relationship between the U.S. and Guatemala been this past year? How will this relationship change with the arrival of the second Trump administration? 

I think the bilateral relationship between  the Biden administration and Bernardo Arévalo were good in terms of the bilateral agenda and cooperation that they have tried to pursue. Fostering economic growth to prevent irregular migration along with promoting security for Guatemalans were the top priorities of the Biden administration. 

Under Biden, the strategy has been to address the root causes of migration and promote economic growth. Officials in Guatemala and the U.S  held two high level dialogues focused on economic development and security and several other high level meetings. But in my opinion, one issue that hasn’t had a lot of attention in Guatemala is inequality. While promoting economic growth has been the main focus for the U.S., it hasn’t been able to actually democratize the economy. So the issue is inequality and the fact that the economic elites in Guatemala have a lot of power. The Biden administration is also very committed to human rights and democracy, but the majority of the economic elites are not. We will see how this plays out with the Trump administration.

For some Republicans, Bernardo Arévalo is seen as a good ally, and he has for instance, demonstrated he’s committed to democracy and human rights, not just in Guatemala, but in the region, like in Venezuela.  Arévalo also received the 135 Nicaraguans that were expelled from Nicaragua — they were political prisoners. So I think Guatemala could be a key ally for the Trump administration, but we will see how the negotiations play out between the two governments on the key issues, like migration.

The Asylum Cooperation Agreement, more commonly known as the “third safe country agreement” was signed with Guatemala under the first Trump administration with Jimmy Morales as president. I don’t believe that Arévalo would sign something similar, but there will be a lot of pressure on Guatemala on migration and on issues like the deportation flights.

What I think is going to happen is that there will be a huge shift in terms of a focus on the root causes of migration, which will not be a priority for the Trump administration as it was with the Biden administration. This is very problematic because it is important to continue working on justice, human rights, and security because these are the main causes of migration.

We still do not know what will be the position of the Trump administration and what will become of the initiatives led by Vice President Harris to engage with the private sector to promote investment in the region. One was the Call to Action that involved big companies such as Nespresso who committed to invest and create jobs in Guatemala. 

Based on Trump’s first term, we are almost 100 percent certain that he will not be prioritizing justice, rule of law, and human rights, which is a huge error in my opinion. From an economic perspective, I think Guatemala will be negatively impacted by Trump’s proposed mass deportations given that the Guatemalan economy depends on the remittances that are sent by Guatemalan migrants. So it’s not just the human aspect of mass deportation. 

Finally, we’ll have to acknowledge that some corrupt actors, including Consuelo Porras, have implemented a sophisticated lobby in Washington D.C. using a narrative that has grabbed the attention of some Republican party members. This relationship will impact the future of bilateral relations and the overall ability of Arévalo to implement his agenda or even finish the rest of his term, as the coup d’etat denounced by Arévalo continues to be a threat, especially if Republicans continue to support Consuelo Porras. 

To know more listen to our podcast episode From Promise to Pressure: Bernardo Arévalo’s First Year in Power in Guatemala with Ana María Mendez Dardón and Adam Isacson

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