The COVID pandemic, and related U.S. efforts to curtail access to asylum, have caused patterns of migration at the U.S.-Mexico border to fluctuate in often sharp and unpredictable ways. The two graphics below indicate the top countries of citizenship of migrants encountered at the U.S.-Mexico border in fiscal years 2020-2022 and in the past three full months (August-October).
Scroll below the graphics for a brief narrative about migration from each country.
Mexico: Mexico is nearly always the number-one country of origin for migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border. Until 2012, over 85 percent of migrants whom Border Patrol apprehended were citizens of Mexico. By 2019, that had fallen to 20 percent; Mexican migrants made up 33 percent in fiscal year 2022 (October 2021-September 2022), and 28 percent in October 2022. In 2022, U.S. authorities used the Title 42 pandemic authority—struck down by a federal judge on November 15—to expel Mexican migrants 86 percent of the time. In October 2022, 85 percent of Mexican migrants encountered were single adults, much higher than the proportion for citizens of all countries (69 percent).
Cuba: Migration to the border from Cuba, already pushed by state repression and a historic economic crisis, jumped after Nicaragua’s regime, in November 2021, eliminated visa requirements for visiting Cubans, facilitating their travel to the North American mainland. More than 220,000 Cuban citizens—2 percent of Cuba’s population—were encountered at the U.S.-Mexico border in fiscal year 2022.
Mexico does not allow U.S. authorities to expel Cubans across the land border under Title 42, and Cuba has not permitted U.S. expulsion flights; 98 percent of Cubans apprehended at the border in 2022 were processed in the United States under normal immigration law. Under the Cuban Adjustment Act, most will be able to apply for permanent resident status after a year in the United States. Cuba agreed in November 2022 to start accepting U.S. deportation flights.
Venezuela: Migrants from Venezuela began arriving at the U.S.-Mexico border in significant numbers for the first time in 2021. Most were flying into Mexico, which did not require visas of visiting Venezuelan citizens at the time. In January 2022, at strong U.S. suggestion, Mexico imposed a visa requirement on Venezuelans. Migration from Venezuela dropped, then steadily recovered as tens of thousands of migrants per month braved Panama’s dangerous Darién Gap jungles, traveling overland all the way to the U.S. border.
During fiscal year 2022, 1 percent of Venezuelan migrants were expelled under Title 42, nearly all of them people who had some migratory status in Mexico. On October 12, 2022, the U.S. and Mexican governments announced Mexico’s agreement to take back Venezuelan citizens expelled across the land border under Title 42; the impact is seen in the one-third reduction in Venezuelan migration from September to October.
Nicaragua: Citizens of Nicaragua continue to flee the Ortega regime’s repression, and economic turmoil, in great numbers. The U.S. government has consistently run two removal flights to Nicaragua per month; 97 percent of Nicaraguan migrants encountered at the border were processed in the United States under normal immigration law.
Colombia: Citizens of Colombia fleeing violence and economic turmoil are usually able to fly to Mexico, which does not require visas of visiting Colombians, although there has been a noteworthy uptick in Colombians not being admitted to Mexico upon arriving at airports, or being subject to extortion by Mexican officials. (Mexico, Chile, Colombia, and Peru have a visa-free travel arrangement under the “Pacific Alliance” structure.) The U.S. government has been running about 20 monthly expulsion or removal flights to Colombia since April. Migration from Colombia increased about twenty-fold from 2021 to 2022.
Guatemala: Mexico accepts Title 42 expulsions of Guatemalan citizens across the land border, and U.S. authorities expelled 67 percent of Guatemalans encountered at the U.S.-Mexico border in fiscal year 2022. As Title 42 made requesting asylum virtually impossible for citizens of Guatemala, migration from Guatemala declined 18 percent from fiscal year 2021 to fiscal year 2022. 26 percent of Guatemalan migrants encountered in 2022 were unaccompanied children; all were processed under normal immigration law within the United States, as the Biden administration is not applying Title 42 to children arriving without parents.
Honduras: Mexico accepts Title 42 expulsions of Honduran citizens across the land border, and U.S. authorities expelled 63 percent of Hondurans encountered at the U.S.-Mexico border in fiscal year 2022. As Title 42 made requesting asylum virtually impossible for citizens of Honduras, migration from Honduras declined 33 percent from fiscal year 2021 to fiscal year 2022. 18 percent of Honduran migrants encountered in 2022 were unaccompanied children. Just over half of Honduran migrants were encountered in Border Patrol’s Rio Grande Valley sector, in south Texas, in 2022.
Peru: Citizens of Peru fleeing violence and economic turmoil are usually able to fly to Mexico, which does not require visas of visiting Peruvians. (Mexico, Chile, Colombia, and Peru have a visa-free travel arrangement under the “Pacific Alliance” structure.) The U.S. government ran 10 expulsion or removal flights to Peru between August and October 2022.
Ecuador: Migrants from Ecuador began arriving at the U.S.-Mexico border in significant numbers for the first time in 2021. Most were flying into Mexico, which did not require visas of visiting Ecuadorian citizens at the time. In September 2021, at strong U.S. suggestion, Mexico imposed a visa requirement on Ecuadorians. Migration from Ecuador dropped, but has been steadily recovering as thousands of migrants per month braved Panama’s dangerous Darién Gap jungles, traveling overland all the way to the U.S. border. Since August 2022, Ecuador has been the number-two country of citizenship of migrants passing through the Darién region; their numbers more than tripled from September to October, to 8,487. During fiscal year 2022, 5 percent of Ecuadorian migrants were expelled under Title 42; the U.S. government ran 20 removal flights to the country over the past 12 months.
Haiti: Many if not most Haitian citizens who arrive at the U.S.-Mexico border left Haiti years ago, then lived and worked for several years in Brazil, Chile, or elsewhere in South America. 2021 saw a large-scale migration of Haitians through the Darién Gap (Haiti was the number-one country in the Darién that year), culminating in the notorious September Border Patrol “agents on horseback” incident in Del Rio, Texas. The Biden administration carried out an aggressive campaign of aerial Title 42 expulsions of Haitians back to the island, with 240 flights removing nearly 25,000 Haitians since September 2021.
Since June 2022, though, Haitian protection-seeking migration at the border has been quite orderly. Over these five months, a system of humanitarian exemptions from Title 42 has meant that 96 percent of encountered Haitians were allowed to approach ports of entry, and just 0.5 percent were expelled under Title 42. There was just one removal flight to Haiti between September and October.
El Salvador: Mexico accepts Title 42 expulsions of Salvadoran citizens across the land border, and U.S. authorities expelled 58 percent of Salvadorans encountered at the U.S.-Mexico border in fiscal year 2022. 17 percent of Salvadoran migrants encountered in 2022 were unaccompanied children. 69 percent of Salvadoran migrants were encountered in Border Patrol’s Rio Grande Valley sector, in south Texas, in 2022.
Though Title 42 made requesting asylum virtually impossible for citizens of El Salvador, migration from El Salvador declined just 2 percent from fiscal year 2021 to fiscal year 2022. This is a smaller decline than those experienced among citizens of Guatemala or Honduras—the two other countries whose citizens’ expulsions Mexico has consistently accepted. Further research is needed to determine whether the steadiness of Salvadoran migration is related to the Bukele government’s sweeping crackdown on young people suspected of gang membership. This crackdown has resulted in over 57,000 arrests since late March in a country of 6.5 million people, and could be causing more people to flee despite Title 42.
Russia: Encounters with migrants from Putin’s Russia exceeded 200 in April 2021, 1,000 in September 2021, and 2,000 in December 2021. The 3,879 encounters in October 2022 appear to be a new record. More than 75 percent of Russian migrants are encountered in and around San Diego, California, where most come to the San Ysidro port of entry. At times, they seek to drive over the borderline in rented cars.
India: Encounters with migrants from India exceeded 1,000 in December 2021 and 2,000 in May 2022. 90 percent of Indian citizens are encountered by Border Patrol agents in Arizona and southeast California. Many are fleeing persecution from India’s nationalist government, Quartz reported in October.
Turkey: Migration from Erdogan’s Turkey multiplied eleven-fold between fiscal 2021 and fiscal 2022. Nearly all Turkish migrants are encountered by Border Patrol in and near El Paso, Texas.
Brazil: Migrants from Brazil encountered at the U.S.-Mexico border increased to unprecedented levels in 2021. Most were flying into Mexico, which did not require visas of visiting Brazilian citizens at the time. In December 2021, at strong U.S. suggestion, Mexico imposed a visa requirement on Brazilians. Migration from Brazil dropped, but recovered to more than 4,000 per month between May and August 2022. Very few of these mid-2022 Brazilian migrants passed through Panama’s Darién Gap jungles: Panama recorded just 2,062 Brazilian migrants during the first 10 months of 2022.
In September and October 2022, the number of Brazilian migrants encountered at the border fell sharply, falling below 1,000 per month for the first time since February 2021. It is not clear why that has happened. 77 percent of Brazilian migrants encountered in 2022 were members of family units.
China: Migration from the People’s Republic of China multiplied five-fold between fiscal 2021 and fiscal 2022. The majority of Chinese migrants are encountered by Border Patrol or CBP in and near San Diego, California.
Romania: Most migrants from Romania are members of the often persecuted Roma ethnic group. Their numbers at the U.S.-Mexico border increased 47 percent from fiscal year 2021 to fiscal year 2022. Border Patrol has been encountering the vast majority in and around San Diego, California and Yuma, Arizona. 78 percent of Romanian migrants encountered in 2022 were members of family units.